Prospective Receptor Operating Characteristics analysis of AIMS65 Score as predictor of outcomes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in Patan Hospital

Abstract

Introduction: AIMS65 is a new score developed to predict outcomes of UGIB. It is simpler than previous scores. The objectives of this study were to study its usefulness in predicting inpatient mortality, ICU stay, and blood transfusion.                                                                  

Method: AIMS65 score was calculated of each patient with upper gastrointestinal bleeding admitted to medicine department of PAHS between 2021 March to 2022 March till predetermined sample size of 84 patients was met. Those patients who refuse to consent, get referred to other centres, leave against medical advice and those whose bleeding source was found to be other than upper gastrointestinal tract were excluded. Outcomes of inpatient mortality, ICU stay and blood transfusion requirement were assessed. Area under receptive operating characteristics curve generated and optimal cutoff determined using Delong statistics.

Result: Of 92 patients included for analysis, median AIMS65 score was one. Rates for mortality, ICU stay and blood transfusion were 13%, 31% and 55% respectively. AUC of inpatient mortality, ICU stay and blood transfusion was 0.792, 0.723 and 0.745 respectively. The optimal AIMS65 score cutoff for each outcome was two or more.

Conclusion: Although AIMS65 score can predict outcome of inpatient mortality, blood transfusion requirement and ICU admission, it needs to be considered along with other factors and cannot be used as sole predictor.